Team Choke vs. New Generation Avs
Obviously, the Sharks are under huge pressure to get to the Final after last year's playoff collapse in rd. 1 to Anaheim. The thing is San Jose tend to fumble over themselves in rd. 2 or 3. Not saying the Avs cannot pull an upset but looking at last year's mess the Sharks were beat by a team just two seasons removed from being crowned champions. But unlike '09 when they had to face the wiles of Teemu Selanne, Scott Niedermayer and Chris Pronger, the Avs no longer have Joe Sakic, Peter Forsberg or Patrick Roy. So let's cut the Sharks some slack in rd. 1.
After that it's up to Evgeni Nabokov and Joe Thornton to prove they are da men!
San Jose takes it in 5 1/3 games
Toews Kaners vs. Barry Trotz-kyites
Nashville are a funny team. Consistently overachievers in the regular season, they have yet to win a playoff series in four tries. They should be due, but then again they still do not have enough offence on paper. You can make a case for Pekka Rinne being good enough to steal a series but before him it was Dan Ellis (who was sensational in the '08 first rd. six-game series vs. the eventual Cup champion Detroit Red Wings), Chris Mason and Tomas Vokoun (also fantastic the first playoff series the Preds played back in '04 again vs. Detroit). All were good enough to keep the Preds in series but without help on offence, this team goes nowhere.
Thanks to the Buffalo Sabres' breaking the curse of the losing Conference Finalists (and not only getting past rd. 1 but going deep two playoffs in a row in '06 and '07). we seem to be in a new era. That bodes well for Chicago in '10.
Blackhawks in 6 2/3 games.
Hollywood North vs. Hollywood
It all falls on Roberto Luongo's shoulders now. The Canucks have the offence . . . finally, so no excuses. Also, Luongo (flameouts in NHL playoff elimination games aside) has been terrific in rd. 1 matchups. Whether he can crank his game up after an Olympic run is the big question and the post-Olympic break showed otherwise. Throw in the fact this team looks defensively suspect whenever one of their big three defencemen gets injured (currently Willie Mitchell; previously Sami Salo or Mathias Ohlund).
With so many question marks with the Canucks D and in net, the Kings are primed for an upset. Sure Jonathan Quick has been nearly as average as Luongo post-Olympics. Maybe sitting in the crowd as Team USA's third goalie at Vancouver 2010 wore him out mentally.
Throw in the fact LA led by Dustin Brown hit a ton the Vancouver D is going to get worn down. Add in the other fact that the LA D not only has all-star youth in Drew Doughty but Stanley Cup rings in Rob Scuderi and Sean O'Donnell, and I'm leaning upset.
Then again Coach Yogi Bear could do a ballsy Cam Ward '06 move and put Andrew Raycroft if Luongo continues letting in softies. Hey, backups sometimes do wonderful things come playoff time.
El Lay in 9 1/2 games
Phoenix Reinsdorfers vs. Winged Wheelers
Has there ever been a series where the higher seed was not the favorite? In this case it's based on how hot the Red Wings have been since the break, but take that with a grain of salt. New Jersey going into one playoff year was on an 11-game winning streak in '06 going in, extended that to 15 by sweeping the Rangers them promptly lost in rd. 2 in five games to the Hurricanes. So, yeah, pencil the Wings in to get through this round unscathed but any further, you're on your own there.
What you should pin your money on is the overtime/shootout record of the Yotes. They won a league record 19 games in OT or the shootout. Playoff teams that top this bizarre stat have lost [almost] every time in rd. 1 as they no longer can rely on a quick 4-on-4 OT or the shootout to chalk up easy wins.
Here's your OT/SO leaders and how they did in season with real OT:
'06 Dallas Stars 15 OT/SO wins were upset in five games by Jose Theodore and the Avycats.
'07 Minnesota Wild 17 OT/SO wins lost in five games to the Ducks.
'08 New Jersey Devils 15 So/OT wins were upset in...you guessed it, 5 games by the Rangers.
Now I did cheat a little as in '07 the Canucks also had 17 OT/SO wins and managed to beat Dallas in about 9 games (yep, there were almost two full games of overtime in that low-scoring series) so let's just say the Yotes have a one in four chance of escaping rd. 1.
Old Wings in six.
Wednesday, April 14, 2010
Leastern Playoff Preview
Everyone on Planet Hockey has made their predictions and analyzed and reanalyzed each series so it's time to hopefully shed some new light (if that's possible) on each series. Remember, in the words of TMQ, "all predictions wrong or your money back."
Team Ovechkin vs. Steve Penney's Ghost
With Jaroslav Halak channeling Dominik Hasek (albeit from a Slovakian perspective) that is the only hope the Habs have of pulling off what would be an upset to at least match Dwayne Roloson's stoning of the Red Wings back in '06. Given it's an Olympic year again, it's possible.
The problem is unlike, say, the grainy images of a '71 Ken Dryden who, I might mention being a bitter B's fan at the time, had an all-star defence in J.C. Tremblay, Jacques Laperriere, Guy Lapointe and Terry Harper to help him out. The erudite one also had Jean Beliveau, Frank and Peter Mahovlich, Yvan Cournoyer, Jacques Lemaire and even the still spry enough Henri Richard to score enough goals to beat the Big Bad Bruins.
Halak has, well, Mike Camalleri, Tomas Plekanec, Scott Gomez and a now healthy Brian Gionta. I rest my case.
Capitals in 8 games (factoring in overborings)
Team Trap vs. Team Pronger
Philly signed the now slower Chris Pronger for one reason alone and that was to do playoff battle with the star forwards of the East. Ilya Kovalchuk better bring his wood chopping best to the rink. Now there is a lot of text online about how Martin Brodeur gives the Devils the edge. Maybe back when the two Scotts (Niedermayer and Stevens) were patroling the Cloven Hoofed Ones blueline, but Brodeur has not gotten to the Conference Finals let alone the Final since the dynamic defence duo no longer were together on Team Lou. I would also add that Jacques Lemaire-coached teams (we're talking Minnesota Wild) have not done much playoff damage of late (one lone Conference Finals appearance in '03).
Now you can argue all you want about Brian Boucher not being in Brodeur's league but he has played well in the second half, has beaten NJ (by a 5-1 score) and has actually gone deep in the playoffs but that was way back in '00 (Conference Finals where a returning from injury yet again Eric Lindros got TKO-ed by a Scott Stevens hit in Game 7).
Throw in the fact Philly took five of six off New Jersey and the fact when one team dominates another in the regular season, it's usually curtains for the other team (i.e., Habs 8W 0L in '08 vs. Bruins = 1st rd. loss for B's even if it took 7 games).
Philly in 6 1/2 games.
Buffy the Playoff Sabres vs. Boston Injureds
The only hope for the B's is Ryan Miller suffering from the post-Olympic curse. That and Tuukka Rask has to play as well as he did in the regular season. Without Marc Savard, though, the B's are up against it as winning four 2-1 games is a stretch but not beyond the realm of possibility. Having said that people are dismissing this series and saying it will be boring. Maybe these teams don't score enough but the games between the two feature plenty of scoring chances. Of their six regular season games, four of them had over 60 shots with each team firing 40+ in one of the games. The Sabres are a fast exciting team with plenty of firepower and, if (big IF) Tim Connolly is healthy, the Buffalonians should fire plenty of pucks at Rask.
I'd like the B's if Savard was playing but since he isn't, Sabres in 5 3/4 games.
Crosburgh Malkguins vs. Ottawa Centurions
First, let the record state that the Sens logo is not a Roman senator but a Roman centurion. Now onto the obvious logic: Stanley Cup champions do not lose in rd. 1. OK, aside from '04, '06 and '08 but details, details. In Pittsburgh's favor, unlike '04 Jersey, '06 Tampa and '08 Anaheim's is the fact that the Pens did not fall in the standings (plus not having a lockout year wipe out any good post-Cup season mojo as in the Bolts' case). They stayed right where they were last year--8th overall.
Throw in the fact Alexei Kovalev . . . oh, wait, never mind, subtracting him from the Sens' lineup would be a positive. OK, Filip Kuba being out hurts being a defenceman and having let the force we call Zdeno Chara go to Boston four years ago, well, the Sens are no longer the underachieving playoff flops they were known for (OK, they made the '07 Final, but it's not like they actually "competed" given how unmemorable they were vs. Anaheim).
Flightless Birds in 5.
Team Ovechkin vs. Steve Penney's Ghost
With Jaroslav Halak channeling Dominik Hasek (albeit from a Slovakian perspective) that is the only hope the Habs have of pulling off what would be an upset to at least match Dwayne Roloson's stoning of the Red Wings back in '06. Given it's an Olympic year again, it's possible.
The problem is unlike, say, the grainy images of a '71 Ken Dryden who, I might mention being a bitter B's fan at the time, had an all-star defence in J.C. Tremblay, Jacques Laperriere, Guy Lapointe and Terry Harper to help him out. The erudite one also had Jean Beliveau, Frank and Peter Mahovlich, Yvan Cournoyer, Jacques Lemaire and even the still spry enough Henri Richard to score enough goals to beat the Big Bad Bruins.
Halak has, well, Mike Camalleri, Tomas Plekanec, Scott Gomez and a now healthy Brian Gionta. I rest my case.
Capitals in 8 games (factoring in overborings)
Team Trap vs. Team Pronger
Philly signed the now slower Chris Pronger for one reason alone and that was to do playoff battle with the star forwards of the East. Ilya Kovalchuk better bring his wood chopping best to the rink. Now there is a lot of text online about how Martin Brodeur gives the Devils the edge. Maybe back when the two Scotts (Niedermayer and Stevens) were patroling the Cloven Hoofed Ones blueline, but Brodeur has not gotten to the Conference Finals let alone the Final since the dynamic defence duo no longer were together on Team Lou. I would also add that Jacques Lemaire-coached teams (we're talking Minnesota Wild) have not done much playoff damage of late (one lone Conference Finals appearance in '03).
Now you can argue all you want about Brian Boucher not being in Brodeur's league but he has played well in the second half, has beaten NJ (by a 5-1 score) and has actually gone deep in the playoffs but that was way back in '00 (Conference Finals where a returning from injury yet again Eric Lindros got TKO-ed by a Scott Stevens hit in Game 7).
Throw in the fact Philly took five of six off New Jersey and the fact when one team dominates another in the regular season, it's usually curtains for the other team (i.e., Habs 8W 0L in '08 vs. Bruins = 1st rd. loss for B's even if it took 7 games).
Philly in 6 1/2 games.
Buffy the Playoff Sabres vs. Boston Injureds
The only hope for the B's is Ryan Miller suffering from the post-Olympic curse. That and Tuukka Rask has to play as well as he did in the regular season. Without Marc Savard, though, the B's are up against it as winning four 2-1 games is a stretch but not beyond the realm of possibility. Having said that people are dismissing this series and saying it will be boring. Maybe these teams don't score enough but the games between the two feature plenty of scoring chances. Of their six regular season games, four of them had over 60 shots with each team firing 40+ in one of the games. The Sabres are a fast exciting team with plenty of firepower and, if (big IF) Tim Connolly is healthy, the Buffalonians should fire plenty of pucks at Rask.
I'd like the B's if Savard was playing but since he isn't, Sabres in 5 3/4 games.
Crosburgh Malkguins vs. Ottawa Centurions
First, let the record state that the Sens logo is not a Roman senator but a Roman centurion. Now onto the obvious logic: Stanley Cup champions do not lose in rd. 1. OK, aside from '04, '06 and '08 but details, details. In Pittsburgh's favor, unlike '04 Jersey, '06 Tampa and '08 Anaheim's is the fact that the Pens did not fall in the standings (plus not having a lockout year wipe out any good post-Cup season mojo as in the Bolts' case). They stayed right where they were last year--8th overall.
Throw in the fact Alexei Kovalev . . . oh, wait, never mind, subtracting him from the Sens' lineup would be a positive. OK, Filip Kuba being out hurts being a defenceman and having let the force we call Zdeno Chara go to Boston four years ago, well, the Sens are no longer the underachieving playoff flops they were known for (OK, they made the '07 Final, but it's not like they actually "competed" given how unmemorable they were vs. Anaheim).
Flightless Birds in 5.
Monday, April 12, 2010
Release the Kraken! Let The Real Season Begin!
Before the playoff party can get started let's have a look at a few things that'll maybe help you in your playoff pool.
In '98 five of the eight 1st rd. series were won by the team with fewer Olympians).
In '06 same story, five out of eight.
The previous time the Olympics were held in North America (Salt Lake City '02), four of the eight 1st round series were won by teams with fewer Olympians and all four were in the Eastern Conference.
(To the fact backcheckers: If the two teams matched up in any series had an equal number of Olympians I went with the higher seed as the "pick" which only happened twice and both in '98--Detroit vs. Phoenix in rd. 1 and Washington vs. Buffalo in rd. 3)
If we take this two steps further along the playoff trail, here're the results through round three (or Conference Finals) each Olympic year for the teams with fewer Olympians:
'98 10 of 14 series won
'02 5 of 14
'06 9 of 14
So use the following info as you like:
'06 Olympians per playoff team
Washington (5 players) vs. Montreal (6 players)
New Jersey (5 players) vs. Philadelphia (4 players)
Buffalo (5 players) vs. Boston (7 players)
Pittsburgh (5 players) vs. Ottawa (5 players)
San Jose (8 players) vs. Colorado (3 players)
Chicago (6 players) vs. Nashville (6 players)
Vancouver (7 players) vs. Los Angeles (6 players)
Phoenix (3 players) vs. Detroit (8 players)
I could go further and show you how the teams with fewer players in the Final Four of the Olympic tournament did, but there's virtually no difference statistically so let's move on.
So, how would you call it in '06? I think you have to look at '02 and figure the weaker conference will see the "fewer Olympians" theory hold true. In '02 that was the Eastern Conference and in '06, it's the same so I think we can all see the Capitals, the Flyers (who have beaten the Devils 5 of 6 this season), the Sabres (beating Boston without Marc Savard) and the Penguins going through, can't we?
Out West, well, will it mirror '02 and the teams with more Olympians reverse the fatigued Olympic roster curse? That's the '08 R.J. Umberger third-liner turned playoff goal scorer question.
Since '95, of the 28 teams who went to the Conference Finals, only 9 made it back there (or even went one better and made the Final or took the Cup). Fifteen teams missed the playoffs altogether or lost in rd. 1.
The glimmer of statistical hope for the Blackhawks is teams that improved (or at least did not drop in the league standings) from the previous season have a pretty terrific record:
'99 Dallas Stars finished 1st overall in '98 and again in '99 and went on to win the Cup that season.
'02 St. Louis Blues finished 6th in '01 and '02 and won their 1st rd. series before bowing out in rd. 2.
'07 Buffalo Sabres went from 5th to 1st overall and got back to the Conference Finals.
'07 Anaheim Ducks jumped from 12th to 4th and won the whole kit and kaboodle (1930s' translation: the Stanley Cup).
'08 Detroit Red Wings went from 2nd to 1st overall and took their fourth Cup in the Nicklas Lidstrom era.
'10 Chicago Blackhawks moved from 6th in '08/09 to 3rd overall this season so will they float down the Mississippi like St. Louis in '02 or will they follow the pattern of the vast majority of these other teams in question?
Then the Pens destroyed the the losing Cup Finalist curse. You know the one where every losing Cup Finalist since 1994 has never made it back to the Final the next season. In fact 10 of the last 14 "losers" actually missed the playoffs or lost in the 1st round the season after.
Well, now the Crosburgh Malkguins are attempting to do what no team has done since '98, repeat as champions. Would you bet against them?
Is it too late to change Canuck colors to red?
Roberto Luongo has played extremely well (.930 career save percentage) in the playoffs but not well enough in elimination games ('09 Game 6 vs. Chicago and '07 Game 6 vs. Anaheim). We all know he has played well for Canada in a pinch hitting role subbing in the '04 World Cup semi-final and this past '06 Olympics.
This isn't international hockey though so there's the rub. I'll leave you to speculate on how you think Luongo will play in the '10 playoffs but reserve judgment even if the Canucks get past the Kings. It's winning two rounds of playoff hockey that puts you in at least the '06 and '07 Ryan Miller category.
I didn't need no stinkin' long playoff resume!
Why year after year do you hear the media go on about this? Isn't it their job to follow hockey year after year? Do they not notice how little it matters that a goalie has any playoff experience? Did they not grow up in the rookie Patrick Roy wins Cup in '86 or sophomore Martin Brodeur wins Cup in '95 eras?
Aaaargh! I'm tired of hearing this.
You do not need an experienced playoff goalie to go deep in the playoffs.
Prior to Marc-Andre Fleury helping the Penguins get to their first Final in '08, he had a grand total of 5 NHL playoff games.
Cam Ward who led the 'Canes to the Cup in '06 had zero playoff games under his belt given he was a rookie . . . and a backup behind Martin Gerber going in to that year's playoffs!
I could go on and on but, if you want to go deep in the playoffs, more times than not, you're better off with a fresher, healthier, less mileage on the goal pads goaltender.
Plus forget looking at regular season save percentage otherwise no one would ever think Jose Theodore could consistently win at least one round year after year.
So take all that for what you will and make your picks.
Tomorrow a look at the scorers to take in your playoff pools.
Why am I not invited to this year's playoff party?
The Olympic Effect
We curse your playoff chances!
This is a tough one. When the Olympics were held overseas (Nagano '98 and Torino '06) it had a HUGE effect.
We curse your playoff chances!In '98 five of the eight 1st rd. series were won by the team with fewer Olympians).
In '06 same story, five out of eight.
The previous time the Olympics were held in North America (Salt Lake City '02), four of the eight 1st round series were won by teams with fewer Olympians and all four were in the Eastern Conference.
(To the fact backcheckers: If the two teams matched up in any series had an equal number of Olympians I went with the higher seed as the "pick" which only happened twice and both in '98--Detroit vs. Phoenix in rd. 1 and Washington vs. Buffalo in rd. 3)
If we take this two steps further along the playoff trail, here're the results through round three (or Conference Finals) each Olympic year for the teams with fewer Olympians:
'98 10 of 14 series won
'02 5 of 14
'06 9 of 14
So use the following info as you like:
'06 Olympians per playoff team
Washington (5 players) vs. Montreal (6 players)
New Jersey (5 players) vs. Philadelphia (4 players)
Buffalo (5 players) vs. Boston (7 players)
Pittsburgh (5 players) vs. Ottawa (5 players)
San Jose (8 players) vs. Colorado (3 players)
Chicago (6 players) vs. Nashville (6 players)
Vancouver (7 players) vs. Los Angeles (6 players)
Phoenix (3 players) vs. Detroit (8 players)
I could go further and show you how the teams with fewer players in the Final Four of the Olympic tournament did, but there's virtually no difference statistically so let's move on.
So, how would you call it in '06? I think you have to look at '02 and figure the weaker conference will see the "fewer Olympians" theory hold true. In '02 that was the Eastern Conference and in '06, it's the same so I think we can all see the Capitals, the Flyers (who have beaten the Devils 5 of 6 this season), the Sabres (beating Boston without Marc Savard) and the Penguins going through, can't we?
Out West, well, will it mirror '02 and the teams with more Olympians reverse the fatigued Olympic roster curse? That's the '08 R.J. Umberger third-liner turned playoff goal scorer question.
Beating The Conference Final Curse
Commit to the Indian!
Teams that lose in rd. 3 usually follow up the next season by either missing the playoffs (say hello to the Carolina Hurricanes '09/10 season!) or lose in rd. 1.
Commit to the Indian!Since '95, of the 28 teams who went to the Conference Finals, only 9 made it back there (or even went one better and made the Final or took the Cup). Fifteen teams missed the playoffs altogether or lost in rd. 1.
The glimmer of statistical hope for the Blackhawks is teams that improved (or at least did not drop in the league standings) from the previous season have a pretty terrific record:
'99 Dallas Stars finished 1st overall in '98 and again in '99 and went on to win the Cup that season.
'02 St. Louis Blues finished 6th in '01 and '02 and won their 1st rd. series before bowing out in rd. 2.
'07 Buffalo Sabres went from 5th to 1st overall and got back to the Conference Finals.
'07 Anaheim Ducks jumped from 12th to 4th and won the whole kit and kaboodle (1930s' translation: the Stanley Cup).
'08 Detroit Red Wings went from 2nd to 1st overall and took their fourth Cup in the Nicklas Lidstrom era.
'10 Chicago Blackhawks moved from 6th in '08/09 to 3rd overall this season so will they float down the Mississippi like St. Louis in '02 or will they follow the pattern of the vast majority of these other teams in question?
A Hat Trick of Curse Busting
The Crosby-era Penguins have become Cup champions without even having to go through the stupendous upset loss. Yes, even the Detroit Red Wings had to suffer not only one shocking upset (the '95 Devils sweep in the Final) but a few more both before and after as favorites before winning in '97. The Penguins may have lost the '08 Final, but they went in as underdogs so the loss as tough as it was could not have been unexpected.Then the Pens destroyed the the losing Cup Finalist curse. You know the one where every losing Cup Finalist since 1994 has never made it back to the Final the next season. In fact 10 of the last 14 "losers" actually missed the playoffs or lost in the 1st round the season after.
Well, now the Crosburgh Malkguins are attempting to do what no team has done since '98, repeat as champions. Would you bet against them?
Wither Bingo Bango Bongo?
Is it too late to change Canuck colors to red?Roberto Luongo has played extremely well (.930 career save percentage) in the playoffs but not well enough in elimination games ('09 Game 6 vs. Chicago and '07 Game 6 vs. Anaheim). We all know he has played well for Canada in a pinch hitting role subbing in the '04 World Cup semi-final and this past '06 Olympics.
This isn't international hockey though so there's the rub. I'll leave you to speculate on how you think Luongo will play in the '10 playoffs but reserve judgment even if the Canucks get past the Kings. It's winning two rounds of playoff hockey that puts you in at least the '06 and '07 Ryan Miller category.
Are You Experienced?
I didn't need no stinkin' long playoff resume!Aaaargh! I'm tired of hearing this.
You do not need an experienced playoff goalie to go deep in the playoffs.
Prior to Marc-Andre Fleury helping the Penguins get to their first Final in '08, he had a grand total of 5 NHL playoff games.
Cam Ward who led the 'Canes to the Cup in '06 had zero playoff games under his belt given he was a rookie . . . and a backup behind Martin Gerber going in to that year's playoffs!
I could go on and on but, if you want to go deep in the playoffs, more times than not, you're better off with a fresher, healthier, less mileage on the goal pads goaltender.
Plus forget looking at regular season save percentage otherwise no one would ever think Jose Theodore could consistently win at least one round year after year.
So take all that for what you will and make your picks.
Tomorrow a look at the scorers to take in your playoff pools.
Why am I not invited to this year's playoff party?
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