Monday, August 26, 2013

Chasing That Elusive Grail

NHL players supposedly live and breathe the game but do they understand some basic truths about the game at all? Given evidence right in front of them, are they delusional when changing teams in an effort to win a Stanley Cup?

Let's start with some basic information that should be staring all of them in the face.

Norris Trophy Type D-men Get You Cups

This cannot be overemphasized as only one team since the '94 lockout has won a Cup without that elite level guy on the blueline be it a top scoring guy or a shutdown monster. The Carolina Hurricanes with a decent defensive corps of Frantisek Kaberle, Bret Hedican, Aaron Ward, Niclas Wallin, Mike Commodore, Glen Wesley and Oleg Tverdovsky won the 2006 Cup. Kaberle led the d-men in scoring with13 points in 25 playoff games. Decent numbers but I doubt Paul Coffey was shaking in his boots about his single playoff record total of 37 points being in jeopardy.

Just have a look at this very good to elite group of top scorers and scary intimidators
Devils--the Scotts (Niedermayer and Stevens)
Avs--Sandis Ozolinsh, Adam Foote, Rob Blake
Red Wings--Nicklas Lidstrom, Larry Murphy, Nicklas Kronwall
Stars--Sergei Zubov, Derian Hatcher
Lightning--Dan Boyle
Ducks--Chris Pronger...and Scott Niedermayer
Penguins--Sergei Gonchar
Blackhawks--Duncan Keith
Bruins--Zdeno Chara
Kings--Drew Doughty

So, did no one inform Daniel Alfredsson that Nicklas Lidstrom has retired?
Did he honestly think because the Red Wings pushed the eventual Cup champ Blackhawks to an overtime in Game 7 that means the Wings are close to a Cup?
Let me remind Alfie of his Sens' 2003 Game 7 loss to the Devils who took the Cup that season. The following season the Sens lost in seven to their old nemesis, the Leafs. Game over.

The '13 Wings pushing the Hawks to seven is no different than the Habs, Lightning and Cancuks all going seven with the '11 Bruins. Have any of those three teams won a Cup since then? Will any of them?

Almost ALL Cup champs get pushed to seven games somewhere along their Cup run. This has been happening pretty much since the '70s.

Now that Alfie has spoken about what when on during his attempts to get a new contract with the Sens, as well as the Sens thinking he'd be retired two seasons ago but they extended him an extra year last season . . . yeah, it's a mess. Anyway, as much as Alfie will be comfortable with the Swedish contingent (Henrik Zetterberg, Nicklas Kronwall, Johan Franzen, Jonathan Ericsson, Gustav Nyqvist, Mikael Samuelsson, Joakim Andersson and even backup goalie Jonas Gustavsson--yes, The Monster himself!) the Red Wings still need a Lidstrom or at the very least a Brian Rafalski or Larry Murphy back behind the blueline.

All I can say, Erik Karlsson is in Ottawa and Craig Anderson is a pretty good goalie. If Alfie wanted to increase his Cup chances, he may as well have stayed put.

Losing Finalists Don't Take The Next Step 

Well, you say, the Penguins made it back in 2009. The Oilers did it too in 1984.
Sure they did but these two teams also had Wayne Gretzky, Mark Messier, Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin. So unless you have a couple of superstar forwards, how likely is it that the Boston Bruins are headed back and will win the 2014 Cup?

So, Jarome Iginla, what were you thinking? You were on the right team. You moved to the Penguins, played well even if on your off-wing, in the playoffs. Did you think the Pens getting embarrassed by the B's in four straight was a sign Pittsburgh was done?

Obviously, the B's getting back to the Final in 2013 after winning it in 2011 prove they are no fluke. They also have no superstar scorer (Nathan Horton who left for Columbus does not count) so chances of them pulling an '09 Pens move are slight despite the presence of Chara back behind the blueline.

Look, Jarome, the teams that win a Cup often fail miserably the previous season. That failure most likely is a motivating factor in the Cup-winning run. Just look at the playoff runs the season previous to the last four team's Cup wins.

2012 Blackhawks
Lost in the first round to the Coyotes. Well, they actually lost to Phoenix goalie Mike Smith. Five games went to OT. The Hawks outshot the Yotes by a margin of 241-159 in that six-game series.

2011 Kings
Lost in the first round to the Sharks. Three OT games all won by San Jose in the six-game set really did in LA.

2010 Bruins
Managed to become only the third team in NHL history to blow a 3-0 lead in a series and lose. The Flyers not only won four straight to finish off the series but were down 3-0 in Game 7 after just over 14 minutes from the start of the game and still came back to win 4-3. Needless to say Tim Thomas won the #1 goalie slot back after Tuukka Rask took it from him in 2009/10.

2009 Blackhawks
So close but the young Hawks lost in the third round to the Red Wings in five. Three games went to OT but the Hawks also got blasted 6-1 at home in Game 4.

So where should Iginla have gone if he truly believed the Pens had no shot at the 2014 Cup?

The choices really should have come down to the Capitals, Wild or Blues. All those teams had their hopes crushed in the 2013 playoffs. All four teams have some or all of the component parts Cup winning teams usually must have.

The Caps have Alexander Ovechkin, of course (an all-star on both wings!). Now Mike Green is most likely going to be the key. If he can return to being a top scoring defenceman, the Caps are in with a chance.

The Wild have the top D-man in Ryan Suter who proved in this past playoffs he is truly a stud. Sure they could use more scoring overall but having that Norris Trophy level defenceman is more important as THE building block to a Cup.

The Blues have a terrific defense corps in Kevin Shattenkirk, Jay Bouwmeester and Barret Jackman among others. The big question is: What is going on with Alex Pietrangelo's contract? This guy is a Norris trophy winner in waiting. He'll be 24 and going into just his four full NHL season. Throw in some real depth in net with Jaroslav Halak. Brian Elliot and Jake Allen, and St Loo is a strong choice.

Even so, did Iginla not trust Kris Letang? That really is all the Pens need as the fuss about their netminding was unwarranted. Tomas Vokoun, who has been an excellent goalie buried in Nashville and Florida for much of his career, proved he can play with the big boys. Marc-Andre Fleury--who knows, but you only need ONE goalie .
 





Saturday, June 29, 2013

Taking A Bite Out Of The Cup?

The Canucks hired a coach that knows how to win? He's won a Calder Cup and a Stanley Cup?

Wow, is Marc Crawford back? Oh, yeah, he only made the AHL Final when he was coaching the Baby Leafs in St. John's, but there's that Stanley Cup (thanks, Patrick Roy!).

So, Fonzie it is--John Tortorella (Right About Now, the Funk Soul Brother!). Of course, he last won a Stanley Cup pre-lockout-lockout back in 2004 during the dead puck era. Once he lost his Stanley Cup winning goalie Nikolai Khabibulin in Tampa, not so much. Two first round exits and once missing the playoffs altogether which got him canned.



Onto New York where one assumes he was brought in to get them a Stanley Cup. How'd that work out? Well, the Shot Blockers in his first three seasons lost twice in round one and missed the playoffs in between those two one-and-dones. Then his 10W-10L .500 record in the 2012 playoffs got the Rangers to round three where they subsequently lost to the New Jersey Devils playing 90-year-old Martin Brodeur in net.

This past playoffs, we all know what happened. Torts decides to bench his best offensive player Brad Richards the last two games of the second round series vs. Boston and proceeded to lose to the Bruins.

I don't date bench players


Well, at least he'll have the Sedins killing penalties because we all know the slowest skaters on any team should be doing that. Plus didn't Mario Lemieux lead the league in blocked shots one year? Or maybe that was Phil Esposito? Howie Morenz?

OK, put them out there for the last 20 seconds a la Gretzky and Kurri on the '80s Oilers. That may work...if they can get the twins fitted with rocket skates.

Rocket skates made from golden baby seals


Not sure if the Canucks need any more biting given how Alex Burrows really only woke up the Bruins in the 2011 Final by adding more bite to his game. But, alright, let's give Mr. Bite the benefit of the doubt and look at the truculent positives. Yes, the Canucks need to get tougher BUT where are these players that will do that?  There's no Andrew Shaw or Bryan Bickell on this team (sorry, Zack Kassian). The defence is not exactly Chara scary or Keith steady.

The Nux are also moving to a way tougher division given three of the "larger" teams they struggle to beat--the Kings, the Ducks and the Sharks--are in that new division.

Yes, the window may have closed once the Canucks blew the 2011 Final, but there is that Carolina Hurricanes 2006 rebound back-to-the-Final and win it model? Can the Canucks learn anything from how the Canes did it?

Not enough really has been made of how the Canes lost in the 2002 Final and four years (but only three seasons given the '04/05 lockout) later clawed back to win it all. It's the one model losing Finalists should be looking at.

They did have a new coach in Peter Laviolette who had replaced Paul Maurice after 30 games of the '03/04 season.

The thing with the Canes is although their defence stayed virtually the same (Hedican, Wallin, Wesley and Ward) with just Frantisek Kaberle and Mike Commodore replacing Sean Hill and Marek Malik, the rest of the team had plenty of turnover.

The goalies in '02 were Arturs Irbe and Kevinturs Weekes. Yes, Canuck fans, the two and the same.

In '06 it was Cam Ward. Well, actually it was the #1 netminder Martin Gerber who flopped so badly in the first two games in round one that a change was warranted. Rookie Cam Ward proceeded to channel Patrick Roy and took home the Conn Smythe.

All the wingers changed bar Erik Cole who only got into two playoff games in '06 anyway. Given the '06 wingers were veterans Corey Stillman, Mark Recchi (a late-season pickup) and Ray Whitney with future multiple Cup winners Andrew Ladd and Justin Williams, that's a pretty strong group.

Rod Brind'Amour and Kevyn Adams were back as two of the centers but the additions of Matt Cullen and Doug Weight to go with 21-year-old Eric Staal in just his sophomore season leading the Canes in playoff scoring...and hello, Stanley.

So, there you have it. I guess the change of coach has been done. Now all the Canucks need to do is bring up some hotshot 21-year-old scoring center from the minors and change all their wingers bar maybe a veteran like Christopher Higgins.

That was easy. Next, I solve the crisis in Brazil. 




Thursday, June 13, 2013

Before They Turned Into Pumpkins



Sure the Nathan Horton injury could really affect the Boston Bruins' chances but they did win the 2011 Stanley Cup without him in the lineup for the last four games of that series. Remember this:

The bigger problem is the loss in Game 1 in the third overtime at 11:59 pm local Blackhawk Time. History has shown up over and over the team that loses a long (we're talking over two overtimes) overtime game in the Final, does not recover.

Remember the "underdog" '90 Edmonton Oilers and Petr Klima's buckethead helmet:

Needless to say, that Klima goal happened in Game 1 also in the third overtime against the B's so cue the eerie ominous fate to come.

Anyway, just because we all know history does repeat itself, here's the list of all the three-overtime games in various Finals:
1931 Game 3 Black Hawks 3 - Habnadiens 2
Cy Wentworth at 13:50 of the third overtime (use the Pat Foley voice).
Montreal wins the series (wait, what?) 3 games to 2 (a five-game Final?).

1990 Game 1 Oil 3 - Bruins 2
Oilers (sans Gretzky in LA) take it 4 games to 1.

1996 Game 4 Avs 1 - Ratsters 0
Uwe Krupp from the point and the sweep over Florida is official.

1999 Game 6 Stars 2 - Sabres 1
Brett Hull puts his foot in the crease and a stupid rule is quickly erased as he nets the Cup-winning goal.
One Hull of a goal


2000 Game 5 Stars 1 - Devils 0
Wow, does anyone outside these two cities even remember this game? Plus what is up with Dallas and three-OT games? Oh, yeah, shots 48-41 over 106 minutes and only one goal. No wonder we forgot. Even the goal--Mike Modano. Here's a reminder.
The Devils win Game 6 in double OT so, hm, curse did not hold thanks to Jason Arnott. 

2002 Game 3 Red Wings 3 - Canes 2
Again the dead puck '00s. Points awarded if you remember Igor Larionov scored the winner. Wings take the series 4 games to 1. 

2008 Game 5 Penguins 4 - Red Wings 3
The summary of this one is wild. Read on here. Petr Sykora (those pesky ex-Devils are everywhere) with the winner.
Detroit went on to win Game 6 and the series.

So, I take that back, your team can recover from that devastating long-OT loss. It's nearly a 50/50 shot so advantage no team after Game 1.

Could we also stop going on about how many shots whatever goalie has faced/stopped through these long overtime games (or even the ones that finish sooner). Last night we kept hearing about how many saves Tuukka Rask had made. Great info without context. When you're on about his 59 saves the 63 shots worked out to an average of 33 shots per a regular 60-minute game. It's not like he was pummeled with rubber in OT. It was his play in the the regulation game facing 39 shots that kept Boston in it more despite the three goals Rask gave up (or should I say minus the one shot going wide that banked off Andrew Ference to tie it up).

This was not the 1987 Kelly Hrudey and Bob Mason mano-a-mano Game 7 Easter Epic. The shots in that 4OT game: Capitals 75-Isles 57. The Caps averaged 13 shots a period for periods 4 through 6. Then they ran out if gas and only had one shot through 8:47 of period 7 until Pat Lafontaine scored for the Islanders.

This was not that other insane game the Capitals were involved in. The 1996 3-2 loss vs. the Pittsburgh Penguins that had Mario Lemieux gets tossed, a penalty shot in overtime (that Joe Juneau of the Caps failed to convert vs. the Pens' Ken Wregget) before Petr Nedved ended it rifling a laser past Ollie the Goalie at half past the "Carson Daly Show." Shed a tear for both Michal Pivonka and Kelly Miller who were "experienced" both games as long-time Caps' players. 
Shots in that one over 79:16--Pens 65-Caps 55 with the Caps outshooting the Pens in OT 37-12. 

So, yeah, folks, long overtimes can be both frustrating ("Somebody please score!") or exhilirating ("They scored? They scored!"). The only thing is, too much of a long-OT thing and unless you're a diehard, it's bedtime.