Stat Me Up

Finally, the real season is upon us once again--the Stanley Cup playoffs. The most exciting round of the playoffs is also about to start tonight, and you're wondering how it's all going to pan out. Especially if you're in a hockey pool you want to figure out where those upsets will come from. Johnny Canucklehead is here to help you with all that and more.

Let's have a look at the way things have panned out since the lockout in round one.

HEAD-TO-HEAD
I'm crushing your head...to head

Some experts say look at the head-to-head record. Well, if you want to be hover around .500 in your predictions that's the way you should go. Of 48 series in the 1st rd. since 2006, only 27 were won by the team who won the regular season head-to-head (or by the higher seed if the season's series was dead even).

What is more telling is regular season "dominance." If one team holds more than a three-game edge over their opponent in the regular season, the odds increase dramatically. Of nine series where this was the case going in, seven teams triumphed. Just ask the 2010 Philadelphia Flyers who as a #7 seed knocked off the #2 seed New Jersey Devils. Of course, a 5W 1 L edge in the regular season should have been a sign of the coming 1st rd. apocalypse in Jersey.

So, given this season the St. Louis Blues won all four meetings with the San Jose Sharks, you do the math. Then again the Anaheim Ducks won all four regular season games vs. the Nashville Predators in 2010-11 and lost in the 1st rd. So...grain of salt meet kernel of wisdom.

GOALIE WEAR & TEAR

Smaller goalie equipment is an improvement

Goaltending can be a key factor in determining who advances (well, duh!). It is sometimes surmised that the fresher netminder (i.e., the one who played less games in the regular season) is often the better choice.
That has proven true 27 out of 48 series in rd. one. So no more a strong indicator than the head-to-head records.

When you look at what seems to be the breaking point of 70 games played, things look a bit different.
Of ten series where one goalie cracked that 70 GP and the other was under the 70 GP threshold, the fresher goalie's team had a 6-4 edge. Not as huge an advantage as expected but something to consider when Jonathan Quick played almost 70 this season (69 GP) and in 2010 he played 72 and lost to the Vancouver Canucks in rd. 1.

GOAL DIFFERENCE

Obviously, a team with a better goals for vs. goals against on the season should be a better team. Yet sometimes a team may have a better goal difference yet not as many points to show for it due to the wonky overtime/shootout loser point rule.
Of those 48 first round series so far 33 have seen the team with the better goal difference come out on top. That's over a 68 percent success rate. In other words it's like a 112-pt season.

This year we have some very interesting possibilities in rd. 1.
Obviously, the Florida Panthers with a measly 203 GF and 227 GA are a terrible team who benefited from being in a lousy division (Yes, GM Dale Tallon did a great job putting the pieces together, yada, yada, yada, but in any other division in the NHL, the Cats are not making the playoffs). Given the New Jersey Devils are a +19 (228 GF-209 GA), it's a pretty easy series to predict that maybe the Devils might take that.

What's more interesting is the Nashville Predators and the Detroit Red Wings series. Maybe Detroit is too old. Maybe Detroit is not a great road team (after being a terrific one last season). Yet Detroit not only outscored the Preds; they also have a better D.

• Nashville 237 GF 210 GA +27
• Detroit 248 GF 203 GA +45

Twice before the Preds have flopped in the 1st rd. as a higher seed. The 2012 team comes in with huge expectations given the impending free agency of their top two defencemen (the restricted free agent Shea Weber and unrestricted Ryan Suter) and the additions at the trade deadline of Paul Gaustad, Hal Gill and Taylor Swift. High expectations can often equal huge upset loss. Can you say the entire playoff history of the Washington Ovechkins?

SCORE GOALS

Defence wins championships. Really? Does defence alone really win championships?
Sure the Stanley Cup is littered with tales of goaltenders acting like Gumby on skates leading teams to Cups but what to make of the 2009 champion Pittsburgh Penguins.
The Crosby Malkins were 17th in goal against average yet tied for second in goals for.
The 2006 Caroline Hurricanes were tied for 18th in GAA, but 3rd in GF.
Sure, there are Cup teams like the Red Wings of 2008 who led in GAA but even they were also 3rd in GF.

So when some bobblehead on TV goes on about the penalty kill, the shot blocking or the need to tighten up on D, remind yourself that you still have to score goals to win playoff hockey games.
The team with the better goals for triumphed 33 out of 48 times in rd. one from 2006 to 2011.

Now if you look at the 17 1st rd. series where the lower seeds had more GF than the higher seeds, the lower seeds won ten of those. Last year we saw the Tampa Bay Lightning (238 GF) upset the Pittsburgh Penguins (238 GF) who were without Sidney Crosby. Despite Tampa being only a miniscule +7 in goal difference vs. the Pens' +39. Guy Boucher that 1-3-1 out the door. Tampa actually carpetbombed the Pens in Game 5 8-2 on Pittsburgh ice! Any team with Steven Stamkos, Martin St. Louis and Vincent Lecavalier is one that can and should score.

So keep an eye on the Ottawa Senators and their 249 GF vs. the New York Rangers 226 GF. In fact, explain this one when you check the Rangers seasons out:
2010-11 233 GF 198 GA, 93 pts, seed #8
2011-12 226 GF, 187 GA, 109 pts, seed #1

So the Tortorella Fellas gave up 11 less goals but also scored seven less goals this season. Even the new math says that's just a +5 improvement in goal difference. That equalled a 16-point jump to the top of the Eastern Conference? I guess it did.

Defensively they blocked tons of shots again this season, but I'm not so sure this is a Stanley Cup winning strategy let alone one to get out of the 1st rd. After all, you run the risk of getting players injured blocking shots that Henrik Lundqvist seems more than capable of doing without breaking any bones. The Strangers might want to spend less time blocking shots and more time creating ones on the opposition's goal.

On that note everyone should all spend more time scoring.
Enjoy round one!

If You're Concussed,
The Jury Is Out

Hated And Overrated

The Vancouver Canucks may not have won a Stanley Cup yet, but they have proven that the team can top player polls by being voted (by Mark Recchi!) as the most hated team in the NHL as well as the most overrated. Most Canuck fans here would probably say more like the much loved and underachieving given the adoration and lack of Cup success.

The fact that the Canucks now even register on other NHL players' and fans' minds is a plus as for most of the team's existence it was basically too irrelevant and mediocre for much of the league to even notice it over 40-plus NHL seasons.

So here we are in 2012 and the Canucks are actually relevant and, if not great yet, at least good enough to warrant attention. Are spider pigs flying?

For those Canuck fans thinking it's the biting, diving and need for tires to be pumped as to why the team is hated and overrated, so we give you the Top Ten real reasons why the Canucks make others' blood boil:

#10 Lapierre's Crazy Rocket Richard Eyes
After Bitegate between Alexandre Burrows and Patrice Bergeron, Maxim Magazine decided to
invite a certain Boston Bruin to bite his glove, but that is not really what makes opponents' blood boil. It's those crazy eyes of his. So scary, kids!

Girls, shield your eyes from the Maxim Man

#9 NoFunCouver
Patrick Kane had to rent a limo and take off his shirt to have any fun in this city. 'Nuff said.

In Chicago, I can snag the babes with my shirt on

#8 Why Is GI Joe Doing The Play-By-Play?
I have no idea what it is that once anyone seems to take over the "Hockey Night In Canada" play-by-play seat they forget all about being a pro like Danny "a cannonading drive!" Gallivan and start to become more like a Bob "I'm expected to know non-Leaf players?" Cole. G.I. Joe's twin, Jim Hughson, has long given up actually keeping up with the play at all and veers off to offer analysis while lack-of-color man Craig Simpson enables him. G.I. Jim also has become obsessed with player's full names in the few attempts he tries to do the play-by-play. You ask now where did the man who stole G.I. Joe's noggin get his start? That's right--as the Vancouver Canucks' play-by-play man.

"Ryan Kesler to David Booth. Niner that."

#7 Free Willy, Please!
The Canucks have gone through a myriad of "interesting" logos from the stick in rink to the downhill skate and now back to the revamped stick in rink on the third jerseys. Yet it's the Free Willy logo that probably drove the right winger Mark Recchi to hate the Canucks so much. It's eco-friendliness wrapped up in a corporate blanket. Truth in advertising, I think not given that Orca Bay no longer is in the picture.

#6 Round And Round We Go
I turned on a hockey game and the Tour de Sweden broke out! What the Sedins do is drive opponents and fans crazy with all that cycling and one-touch passing. We now know Tim Thomas's actions spoke for all goalies--they hate those exercise bikes they are forced to ride after every game and don't like the Sedins reminding them of that.

#5 The Sartorial Splendor
Sure, the Canucks have gone back to their original blue, white and green color scheme for their uniform but often in the crowd you can spot the odd Halloween outfit. Although psychologically sound, the Flying V jersey seared so many eyeballs in the '80s that it's impossible until a Cup is won for this image to disappear. (Or we could pull an AFL Denver Broncos and burn all the Halloween jerseys in a ceremonial funeral pyre.)

The horror! The horror!

#4 Location, Location, Location
Being on the Left Coast of Canada seems to rub everyone the wrong way. The Vancouver is the "most beautiful city ever invented" propaganda seems to have worked too well. Just to clarify: Our city beaches do not have bikini-clad babes and six-pack ab surfer dudes during hockey season? Also, "our" mountains are geographically outside the city's borders. To update your database, Vancouver is rain, bike lanes, more rain, leaky condos thanks to the rain, and showers in the morning changing to rain late evening following by light precipitation overnight...but we do offer decent microbrews and a wide variety of tasty street eats now. Anyway, beauty is in the eye of the beholder.

Irashaimase! Red-hot Japa dogs!

#3 It's Not Easy Being Green
The Green Men creep out NHL tough guys with their glass-climbing handstand antics. Plus their skintight lycra frightens the entire fashion industry.

#2 Too Many Pretty Boys
Ever since the days of Trevor "good in the community" Linden, Kirk McLean's large cranium and cute and hunky icon to many, Pavel Bure, the Vancouver Canucks seem to corner the market on good-looking hockey players. This tradition continues with Ryan "the Body" Kesler , Mason "too cute for words" Raymond and the angelic features of David Booth. That's right, fans, no Nose Face Marchands allowed here!

#1 Riot Central
Just for those who don't understand the dynamic of the Lower Mainland (or Metro Vancouver as the third jerseyers call it), the vast majority of rioters were not actual residents of Vancouver. It has been well documented that many came from a land called Surrey. Now ridicule for most things Surrey is built into Vancouverites' DNA mainly because Surrey is the Hoboken to our navel-gazing metropolis. That's if Hoboken had a population base that was over a million and a level of weird crimes that sold what few newspapers still sell here locally.